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Incompetent people tend to overestimate their skill level
Wednesday, 27 June 2007
Something interesting happens to me whenever I try to learn a new skill. I tend to underestimate just how hard it's going to be. For some reason, part of me thinks I'm going to be naturally talented at it, even though I have no evidence for that being the case. In fact, an absence of evidence seems to lead to increased optimism in me.
This is a bad habit to have, as it means I can become depressed and disheartened as I discover just how bad I am at something. Rather than putting in the effort to improve I can go off in a sulk and think of all sorts of reasons why it was stupid to try that thing in the first place. It's a childish attitude that I have to fight, but I think it may be part of human nature. We all tend to overestimate our skill level when we start out.
In fact, there's even a name of this. It's called the Dunning-Krueger effect after two men who did a study into it.
They found that incompetent individuals generally overestimate their level of skill and can't recognize competence in others. In fact, the only time incompetent people realize how bad they actually are is when they start to develop some skill of their own.
I see this effect causing problems in people all the time. A classic example is investment. I often see people who are new to the investment game making terrible decisions with a high level of confidence. They do so simply because they seem to assume they're smarter than everyone else - even those with much more experience. It's crazy but true.
You can also see this occurring to tragic effect with young, male drivers. They assume they're highly skilled and do really stupid things as if they were trained stunt drivers. The number of them killed on our roads every year is testament to this.
The problem is that the Dunning-Krueger effect seems to be a built-in part of our nature. We can't prevent ourselves feeling this way from time-to-time. But at least we can recognise it and compensate.
When you take up a new thing, remind yourself that you're probably not going to be very good at it to begin with. When you inevitably stumble and fall during the early days, tell yourself that this is normal and not some major failing on your part.
Try not to make decisions in areas you don't have a lot of experience which may have large negative effects. If you're new to investment, make some small bets to begin with. If you're a new driver on the road, proceed with caution.
Most skills are learned through hard work and practice. Take this as your philosophy, and you'll not go far wrong in the world.
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